There has been increasing speculation surrounding a forthcoming iPad, with many rumors suggesting that Apple will release a refreshed model of the tablet at some point between March and April. Most of the rumors come from the mouths of analysts, who usually don’t have the best track records at spreading rumors when you look back historically. In fact, a number of analysts are wrong far more than they are right.

As far as a new iPad in the next few months goes, I’m simply not buying it.

While it is impossible to accurately predict the release cycle of an Apple product, I think that the recent release of a fourth-generation iPad in a larger 128GB storage capacity is a sign that Apple will not refresh its full-sized iPad until at least the late summer or autumn season. My best guess is that Apple will shift the release of its next major iPad model to September, alongside the launch of an iPad mini with Retina display.

Apple bumped the release cycle of the iPhone two years ago, from a June or July launch to a September or October unveiling. Presumably because a Fall launch is closer to the holiday shopping season, iPhone sales have been significantly higher in the fourth quarter of each year as a result of the switch. Strong sales of the iPad mini can also be attributed to a late October release of the tablet. So, just perhaps, the full-sized iPad will follow suit.