Horace Dediu, of Asymco.com fame, took the time to post some thoughts on Apple’s recent stock price dip:
A pithy way of putting it is: No news is good news. Good news is bad news.
When a product is understood the stock is mildly desirable. When a new product appears the future is hazy and the stock is undesirable. But that haziness hides potential but up and down. New products is what innovators produce. Bizarre new products is what disruptors produce.
In other words, the paradoxical observation in the chart above of “the more drama in the market, the more success in the marketplace” makes sense when inverted.
While others are busy using this dip as evidence that Apple has peaked, Dediu makes the excellent – and historically-proven – point that the stock market is a terrible indicator of future performance, and that a falling stock price when new products are announced and released are simply a reflection of the change, and not of the quality of the products themselves.